$2.4 Million Bet On RIVN – Cursed Carmaker Turnaround


Hey! First post on WSB. Here's why I'm betting big on Rivian:

Customers Love The Product

Talk to anyone you know who owns a Rivian, currently owns another EV and wants an upgrade, or posts on any of the EV/Rivian forums or subreddits. The product has well-documented reliability issues and despite that is still #1 in EV customer satisfaction. According to Consumer Reports' November 2025 survey, 86% of Rivian owners would buy again. BMW comes in second at 77%. Tesla is third at 75% with complaints about build quality.

CEO Has The Right Stuff

If you're seriously considering investing in Rivian, I urge you to watch an RJ Scaringe interview (Here's one with John Collison, founder of Stripe). I've listened to hundreds of business and world leader interviews, and this guy comes across as one of the most authentic, ambitious, and competent CEOs out there. He got his PhD from MIT Sloan Automotive Lab and started Rivian in 2009. His passion for cars and specifically building the best possible electric vehicle from a product perspective really shows. Rivian is often compared to Lucid as car companies that IPO'd and fell off a cliff but are still hanging around. Lucid's leadership does not hold a candle to this guy. Go watch them yourself (Marc Winterhoff, Peter Rawlinson) and see the difference.

Solid Company Culture

I don't look at Glassdoor. Tech people tell you what they really feel about their companies on Blind. Before making an investment in a tech company, I always look at Blind reviews to get an overall feel for what it's like working there. For example, I don't want to see things like "excellent work-life balance" or "nepotism" because they suggest an unproductive environment. The overall vibe I get from Rivian is a fast-paced, scrappy startup that makes a lot of mistakes and pivots frequently. I like that.

The R2 Is A Game-Changer

At a much more accessible $45,000 base and slightly smaller than the R1S, production begins in early 2026 at their massive new VW-backed Georgia plant. This one makes or breaks the company, and initial reviews have been overwhelmingly positive. They're also planning a smaller, cheaper R3 crossover later in 2026.

Autonomy & AI Day On Dec 11

Rivian will likely unveil hands-free driving features, an overview of their sensor stack, and future autonomous roadmap. Not yet comparable to Tesla, but any unexpected good news here can boost the stock.

Amazon Delivery Vehicles

Rivian built about 2.5% of Amazon's fleet (30,000 vehicles) with a projection of over 10% by 2030 as gas vans are phased out. Rivian currently accounts for about 80-90% of Amazon's EV fleet. Take a look around you. If you see a cute-looking Amazon van, on the side you'll notice it's "powered by Rivian".

Platform Architecture Joint Venture With VW

With VW's financial backing, Rivian is developing a modular, vertically-integrated EV software stack. VW already plans to use it across its brands, giving Rivian a software licensing revenue stream. Any other manufacturer adopting the platform would be a major win.

Major Institutional Backing

Amazon owns 13% and VW owns 12.3% of Rivian. A welcome vote of confidence, given how closely they work together. Vanguard (6%), BlackRock (4%), UBS (1.6%) and a whole host of other well-known institutional investors are in as well.

The Chart Looks Awfully Like Major Accumulation

I'll admit it – I'm an astrologer. But you can't look at this chart and say something didn't change after the last earnings call. Popped from 12-18, consolidated at 14.5-15, and headed higher all within a month. Every intraday dip is getting bought back up with intensity. This stock has been beaten down for so long that many potential investors who love the company are waiting for it to drop to 12-13 again "like it always does." It has steadily been making higher lows (6 separate times since Apr 2024 – roughly 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and just recently 14) and once it breaks out, all these dip buyers who are waiting for Godot are going to have to buy in much higher.

Some Personal Anecdotes

  • An AI/ML PhD friend of mine currently working in the self-driving space claimed that Tesla FSD (Full Self-Driving) is a "long-running failure", bought Rivian stock because he "likes the car and company" and will buy a Rivian as his next vehicle.
  • My scammer ex-girlfriend had a Tesla but wanted me to buy a Rivian for her. I didn't, but every time we'd drive around town and she saw one she'd point at it and excitedly say "Rivian!" in that cute little Russian accent of hers. I don't miss her all that much, she was a complete pain in the ass. Really, I don't.

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