By skyforbes 
Positions: 8k worth of call options with most expiring 11/21. $100, $110, and $130 strikes are the main position. Will likely be adding into further OTM strikes as well, probably $140 and $150 when other funds settle.
If you check my post history you will see a previously written speculation post on q3 earnings. This post will include a lot of the same information, with some extra. But positions have been rearranged to reflect real earnings date of 11/11 instead of 10/31 like I had originally thought. I did take a 3k loss due to this mistake earlier (that’s ok I’m fucking stupid)
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Company overview
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is a European AI-infrastructure company based in Amsterdam with R&D hubs across Europe, Israel, and North America. Originally part of Yandex N.V., Nebius became its own pure-play “neo-cloud” infrastructure firm after spinning off all Russian assets in 2024.
Today, Nebius operates data center infrastructure and provides a full-stack AI cloud platform (“Nebius AI Cloud”) serving startups, research labs, and hyperscalers.
Nebius’s “platform as a service” (PaaS) adds another layer and acts as an alternative to the “infrastructure as a service”(IaaS) models that other Neo clouds use, such as IREN, CRWV, etc
Current CEO Arkady Volozh was co-founder of Yandex. Dig a little deeper into their spin off from Russia and you will understand how talented the Nebius crew is today. They have plenty of experience in large scale cloud and AI systems experience. The only difference now is that they are starting with a clean slate, and access to western markets.
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Earnings preview
Q2 earnings was incredibly bullish for nebius, with an 2025 ARR guidance being revised upwards from 750m-1b to 900m-1.1b. Not only that, but they saw a 625% increase in revenue YoY. Q2 earnings were released on August 7, 2025.
As you can see from q2 earnings, they were already poised for explosive growth.
Then, they went and signed a $17.4billion contract with MSFT on September 8, 1 month after their q2 earnings call.
The important thing to remember about the MSFT deal is that this is not instant revenue for NBIS. NBIS must have activated capacity to service the contract prior to receiving revenue from this.
It is extremely unlikely that Nebius’ $900M–$1.1B ARR guidance (which was already revised up from previous) from Q2 earnings included money from the Microsoft deal. That guidance came out in August, while the contract wasn’t announced until september. Companies generally don’t build unfinished or undisclosed deals into official numbers.
Along with that information, please check their 6k (linked above) – “Gpu services will be deployed in several tranches during 2025 and 2026”, meaning that at least part of the revenue from MSFT contract will be baked into 2025 figures.
Rumor has it that the MSFT contract encompasses 300mW of activated capacity. Nebius guided for 220mW of build out by EOY’25 and 1GW by EOY ‘26. This again indicates that Nebius is ready to start collecting revenue from said contract this year.
Given that average ARR over the life of the MSFT contract is a little less than 4b/year, if they even capture 1/4 of that in 2025 they will be effectively doubling their previously projected ARR for ‘25
Side note, a deal of this size with one of the biggest hyperscalers shows confidence in Nebius product and Nebius cloud. More companies will likely follow provided they execute MSFT deal well.
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Other tech earnings
MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META will be reporting earnings this week. I expect a lot of chatter regarding increased AI capex spend as well as increased need for more compute from these companies. This will run Nebius price up until they report earnings.
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NVDA GTC partnership speculation.
NVDA has equity stake in Nebius. Nebius will be speaking at GTC, right after an NVDA announcement for a partnership regarding AI agents and full stack software offerings (sound familiar?) the whole Nebius executive team will be there and will be the first ones to speak at 9:40am after this announcement.
Nebius also teasing that they will be announcing something at GTC and to stay tuned.
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Macro bull catalysts
- FOMC, rate cuts, a dovish Powell, and QT coming to an end.
- Chyna deal
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Risks
Macro risk
Tech earnings bad / ai capex spend decrease(doubt)
Hawkish Powell (doubt)
Execution risk (doubt, leadership is awesome)
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Price target $160 by NOV 21.
- Ne🅱️ius perma bull