By skyforbes 
So yesterday 21/10/2025 in iceland there was a massive power outage in grundartangi in the Akranes peninsula where Century Aluminum (CENX) largest aluminum plant is located. The power outage shut down 66% of the productions pots (around 376) which can happen with these smelters.
normally backup generators are used so that the pots dont freeze (which would ruin them) but they also faulted and because the power outage lasting from 02:00-18:00 Gmt 21/10/2025 all 376 pots where completely ruined.
This is actually insane, each pot generates ~ $16.000 – $20.000 of revenue each day and these sorts of outages can not be fixed within a couple months as few trained specialists know how to repair them and there are no large enough companies that can manufacter 370 pots within a short time period. As i have worked in aluminum factories before i can estimate that this outage will likely last up to 6 months which is crazy and means that Century alumina expects to lose hundreds of millions of dollers in profits.
Estimating low valued loss of each pot out per day is around $15k, 370 pots out for 3 months gives us: $15.000x370x30x3 =**-$499.500.000** Btw their market cap is only around $ 3B (the damages are likley higher but i want a low estimate)
Also news outlets have been trying to silence this by saying that they have insurance to cover this (doubt it) and that there other pots still work in the plant (true). The 33% pots remaining can in way cover this and this fault will also have a very bad economic impact on Iceland given the scale of this failure. This is the largest failure of a company i have seen in Iceland excluding 2 failed airline companies
Now the question is, should we buy puts betting on the companies entire demise or try to take a safer approach and betting on heavy drops in the next days of for the next quarter of earnings. I roughly calculated that Icelands plant makes up for 20% of their yearly profits.
Let me know what you guys think about this and if you find anything wrong with my conclusion, i atleast am certain that this will have a massive impact.
Sources from Iceland i have gathered (You can translate using chatgpt or prompt asking about the failure)
"Mayor" of Akranes Worrying about the outcome.
Icelands largest shipping company Eimskip explaining the scale of economic damage this could cause:
https://vb.is/frettir/eimskip-varar-vid-ahrifum-af-biluninni-hja-nordurali/
Employees fear:
https://www.visir.is/g/20252792825d/verk-smidjan-fari-ekki-af-stad-a-naestu-dogum-eda-vikum
Just in: Headline -> Losing billions every month (in ISK, around $ 45 mil dollars estimated without accounting for repair costs)