By skyforbes With the info blackout, I decided to search for a government data source that was updating. The SSA did not disappoint. Excluding medicare (since that doesn't have an income cap), the chart below shows the quarterly receipts for employee FICA contributions and the annualized growth rate. I threw in the inflation rate (based on the CPI Index) for comparison. What your thoughts on how to play this? This screams short everything except AI or long everything because mega-stimulus is on the horizon.
Data Source: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/taxquery.html
Methodology note: The data from the SSA has an adjustment column that swings wildly. Since most of the notes said that they were the true-ups between the Treasury and Trust Fund for differences between actual and projected, I spread any adjustment evenly over the last 4 quarters.