Producer here – tracked 2,000+ buyers post-AFM, the market’s tighter but some surprising opportunities are opening!

Indie producer here. Tracking buyer activity post-AFM: Yeah it's quieter, but some surprising opportunities are opening up! The last few years have been rough, not gonna sugarcoat it. But I started tracking actual buyer announcements (not rumors) and there are some genuinely optimistic patterns emerging that aren't getting talked about enough.

Yes, the market is quieter post-AFM – most genres are down 40-50% in buyer announcements compared to September/October. That tracks with normal market cycles.

But here's what's actually GROWING right now:

🌍 International co-productions are exploding

• Sony just signed a multi-year deal with Qatar for Arabic-language films with global distribution and a 50% cash rebate
• Qatar is building a major post-production hub (Company 3 partnership, opening in 6 months)
• Cross-cultural content up 211% – India/Australia partnerships, Korean content going global
• Iraq launched its first-ever public film fund this year

💰 The big players are still investing HEAVILY:

• Paramount+: $1.5 BILLION programming investment for 2026, ramping to "at least 15 movies/year"
• FX: Nine-figure deal with Noah Hawley for "bold, character-driven storytelling"
• Netflix: Expanded AMC licensing deal (Walking Dead franchise, Dark Winds, Interview with Vampire)
• Disney+: "Laser focused on Korea and Japan" – wants fantasy romance, Korean crime dramas, manga/gaming adaptations
• Prime Video: 10-movie deal with YA author Mercedes Ron ("The House of Ron"), actively cultivating BookTok sensations

📱 Creator economy becoming a real distribution path:

• Tubi: 4 exclusive creator-driven films with Kevin Hart's Hartbeat launching 2026
• Minerva Pictures: Publicly stated strategy to finance $1-5M films and reach break-even via YouTube monetization
• Multiple producers calling indie TV model "the wave of the future"

🎯 The genres actually holding steady:

• Adventure (+6% vs previous period)
• Family content (steady, four-quadrant demand)
• Romantic comedies (steady)
• Action (down less than others at -25%)

What buyers actually want right now (last 2 weeks):

✅ International/cross-cultural stories (biggest growth area)
✅ Existing IP or social media following (books, podcasts, creators with audiences)
✅ Franchise potential – buyers want universes, not one-offs
✅ Contained budgets ($1-5M sweet spot for YouTube/streaming models)
✅ Specific demos – Korean, YA, Arabic-language, creator-led

Blumhouse said it plainly for FNAF 2: "main focus is making something the fandom will go crazy for".

Why I'm cautiously optimistic:

Yeah, the U.S. market is consolidating and tighter. But new markets are opening (Qatar, Middle East, expanded Korean partnerships), new distribution models are working (YouTube monetization, creator-led), and the big streamers are still deploying billions in specific categories. It's not 2019. But it's also not dead. You just have to be WAY more targeted and potentially think international/cross-border.

All this data comes from the app I've built and I've been doing some data dumps with, www.scriptmatch.ai. I'll continue to be doing some regular data dumps here but things are moving over to SubStack as well as a newsletter. You can sign up for a weekly newsletter at the site!

Anyone else seeing opportunities in international co-productions or creator-led models? What's working for you right now?