By skyforbes Listen up fools!
- Since 1957 the S&P 500 averages +0.30% on the trading day after Thanksgiving and closes green ~65% of the time.
-GDX +118.7% over the last 12 months. 52-week range $33.42 to $85.08, last close ~$81.5 into the holiday. Miners’ love story blossoming.
-Managed-money net longs in gold futures were ~233k to ~253k contracts in late November, signaling constructive macro flow.
Why I think miners hold gains tomorrow
– The day has historical drift up and a short session. We’re gonna see anxious & hungry grinders rather than reverse.
– Gold positioning is supportive. Duh
Bottom line
-History gives us the green tilt.
-Miners got hot hands.
-The tape favors hold the gains behavior right now, we’re not seeing sells, we’re seeing strong inflows.
TLDR: Black Friday is usually quietly green. S&P 500 is up about 65% of the time with an average gain near 0.30%. It is a half day with lighter volume. GDX has ripped roughly 118% over 12 months and sits near its 52-week high. Short week, thin tape, hot leader. I’m pressing long.