Maybe ChatGPT will be the AOL of the AI Era

I’ve been chewing on this for a few days, and I can't unsee the parallel.
Remember the 90s? You couldn't open your mailbox without falling over an AOL free trial CD. For millions of people, AOL was the internet. It was the walled garden where you checked email, looked at news, and chatted. It was easy, safe, and clunky as hell.
I think ChatGPT is exactly that.
Right now, OpenAI has the "first mover" hype. They are the brand name. My grandma knows what ChatGPT is. But if you look at the actual utility, the cracks are showing:

• The "Destination" Problem: Right now, we go to ChatGPT to do things. We open a browser tab or an app. That feels temporary. In 5 years, AI is just going to be a layer in the OS. If Apple Intelligence or Windows Copilot actually gets good, why would I pay $20/month to visit a separate website with fucking target ads? Also Google with AI search will lead towards everyday ai use for the normal old school stuff

• The Interface: Chatting in a text box is the "You've Got Mail" of the mid 20s. It’s cool for now, but it's not the final form. Agents that actually do stuff (book flights, move files, code entire projects in the background) are the broadband connection that kills the dial-up chatbot. Or LLMs will do too much errors due to hallucinations, no one knows.

• No Moat: AOL died because once people got comfortable with the web, they realized they didn't need the training wheels anymore. They just needed a browser (Netscape/IE). Once models become commodities (Chinese crap(cannot remember all names), Claude, Gemini are already better or on par), the "brand" loyalty vanishes.

Also I think with the ad crap they will start to push the users to free alternatives, but without they go bankrupt .
ChatGPT broke the dam, but I doubt it’s the water we’ll be swimming in ten years from now.
We are in the "1000 hours free!" phase of AI. The real shift happens when the AI disappears into the background and we stop throwing around ai slop and start working with it.
Am I off base here, or is OpenAI destined to be bought completely by Microsoft and turned into a legacy service while we all move on?