By skyforbes It's Starlink vs. Kuiper, and one of these is being criminally mispriced.
The Starlink Story
First, let's give respect where it's due. It's the first mover, the cool kid on the block with ~5,000 satellites in orbit and 2.6 million customers paying for the privilege. They proved this stuff works for real when they kept Ukraine online while the world was throwing money at them.
So what's it worth? Somewhere between a new car and a superyacht. Analysts are throwing out numbers from $10 billion to a whopping $130 billion. That's a huge range because nobody knows how to value a company that burns cash to build a sci-fi network in the sky. It's a pure-play bet on global internet, and it's a good one. SpaceX builds its own rockets, so they're printing satellites and launching them cheaper than anyone. That's their moat.
But Starlink is just an Internet Service Provider. A really, really cool one, but that's it. They sell you access and you pay the bill.
The Kuiper Gambit: Amazon's Checkmate Move
Now, let's talk about the real play. Amazon's Project Kuiper.
You think Bezos is spending $15 billion extra a quarter just to launch some satellites so you can stream Netflix in the woods? Get real. Kuiper isn't a business; it's a weapon.
The strategy is so simple it's genius. Starlink's game plan is: Sell Internet -> Get Money. Kuiper's game plan is: Sell Internet -> Acquire Customer -> Put them in the Amazon Flywheel FOR LIFE.
Think about it. Kuiper brings a new customer online in a village in India or on a farm in Nebraska. Where do you think they're going to shop? Amazon. What cloud service will the local businesses there use? AWS. How will they get their stuff? Prime logistics. Kuiper is the ultimate customer acquisition tool, a top-of-funnel marketing machine for a $2 trillion empire. [Don't take it too literally point is market expansion like Uber and Uber EATS].
They just inked a deal with JetBlue for free Wi-Fi. That's not a revenue play; that's a proof-of-concept for a B2B blitzkrieg.
So, What's Kuiper Actually Worth?
You can't value Kuiper like Starlink.
Let's use Starlink's mid-range valuation of $70 billion as our starting point for a scaled satellite internet provider.
Now, add a massive premium for the Amazon flywheel. The ability to lock customers into the entire Prime/AWS ecosystem is worth more than just subscription fees. That's a 200million subscriber or, $200-$300 billion advantage, easy.
Then, subtract a discount because they're late to the party and don't have their own rockets. They have to beg ULA for launch slots. That's a -50 billion haircut.
My math puts Kuiper's strategic value at somewhere around $400 to $600 billion.
And the market is pricing this at ZERO. You are literally being given a $500 billion growth engine for free because the clowns on Wall Street are too lazy to read a 10-Q that shows them spending an extra $15 billion a quarter to build it.
-FIN
Positions: still at 103 shares
TLDR: Starlink is a great ISP. Kuiper is a weaponized customer acquisition tool for Amazon. The market is giving away a $500 billion asset for free. Stop playing checkers and start playing 4D chess. Buy AMZN.
Again..I swear it's not AI. If the MODS will unban the AMZN post (again not AI..I just went the extra mile and bulleted it) it'll make a lot of sense for me to add a link here for our all knowing public.
edit : I know AMZN is up..we shall see if the numbers stick.
not AI proof: