By skyforbes 
As the US government is about to reopen, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a record high, breaking the 48,000 mark, with the US stock market showing a mixed pattern of gains and losses. However, the cryptocurrency market continues to face pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding from 105K USD all the way down, hitting a low of 100,813 USD, and currently retreating to around 101K. Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around 3,400 USD, while the total crypto market cap has fallen 0.88% to 3.43 trillion USD. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 26, still in the fear zone, highlighting low market sentiment.
US Government Reopening Imminent, Dow Hits Record High
Investors are closely watching developments in Washington, with the federal government expected to reopen before this weekend. The Senate has already passed the spending bill and submitted it to the House for a final vote, with results expected by 7 PM Eastern Time (after 8 AM Beijing Time on 11/13). This injects a touch of optimism into the market, but major US stock indices are showing divergence: The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 48,000 for the first time, hitting a record high; the S&P 500 Index is nearly flat; the Nasdaq Index fell 0.26%, marking its second consecutive day of declines. Bank stocks generally rose, with Wells Fargo and Bank of America hitting new highs, while AI-related stocks fluctuated sharply — AMD rose 9%, but Oracle and Palantir Technologies declined, reflecting investor concerns over overvalued tech stocks.
Bitcoin Continues to Bleed: Who’s Selling?
Bitcoin’s price has been under continuous pressure recently, leaving many asking: “Who’s selling Bitcoin?” Chris Kuiper, Research Director at Fidelity Digital Assets, points out that the main selling pressure is coming from long-term holders (HODLers). He uses the percentage of active Bitcoin held for over a year (orange line in the chart below) and Bitcoin’s price (black line in the chart below) as data points. The orange line rises during bear markets because as holding times increase, people hold more Bitcoin to weather losses, and it then typically drops sharply as these long-term holders sell during strong bull market rallies. Interestingly, the decline in this bull market cycle has been relatively gradual. It hasn’t crashed at new highs but has instead been slowly retreating amid the market’s gradual sideways consolidation and upward movement.
Kuiper believes this pattern makes sense from a psychological perspective. Bitcoin has recently underperformed gold and even lagged behind the S&P 500 Index, leaving people feeling fatigued.
Everyone originally expected prosperity from the four-year cycle and opportunities to sell high during the seasonally strong months of October and November. But October’s strong pattern failed to continue, and with year-end approaching, holders are beginning year-end tax and position adjustments, choosing to exit with their existing gains.
Despite this, Kuiper believes there is still a divergence between positive fundamentals and the weak price action, and he will closely monitor the extent of seller fatigue.
10X Research Warns: 93K is a Key Level
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, holds a similar view, noting that Bitcoin has only risen 10% this year, far behind the performance of gold and tech stocks, leading professional investors to lose patience. If prices continue to fall, risk advisors may urge institutional clients to reduce holdings before year-end to rebalance their portfolios.
Thielen specifically warns that if Bitcoin breaks below the key technical level of 93K USD, more holders may be forced to exit, especially those with weaker balance sheets, who will liquidate due to losses.
Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.