By skyforbes 
Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
1.Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: LBA3D77497
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77497
Trading Style: Medium- to short-term swing trading
2.Trade Operation Recap
Shorted $ETH with 50x leverage, opening price at 3,996 USDT, closing price at 3,397 USDT, achieving a single-trade ROI of +749.78%. As shown below:
3.Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
1) On October 11, due to Trump’s announcement of imposing high tariffs on China and the cascading liquidations in the on-chain market, the crypto market experienced an “epic” crash. Bitcoin once fell to around $102,000, while Ethereum dropped to as low as $3,400 before rebounding. Major coins suffered heavy losses, and altcoins were hit even harder, with some tokens plunging more than 90% in a single day.
As extreme fear dominated the market, funds started bottom-fishing, triggering a short-term rebound. Bitcoin rebounded but was resisted below $116,000 and then pulled back. Ethereum encountered resistance around $4,300 and subsequently corrected as well. Overall, the rebound following this crash appeared to be more of a technical recovery, with market sentiment remaining cautious and observant.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From October 12 to 14, after the previous sharp decline, the market saw an oversold rebound, but the overall momentum was limited, with most major coins encountering resistance and pulling back near key levels. On October 15, although Bitcoin showed a minor rebound, it failed to break above the $116,000 mark and instead formed a typical bearish pattern at the top. Considering the major structural resistance and the concentration of liquidation zones, it can be confirmed that $116,000 was the temporary peak of this rebound phase.
At the same time, Ethereum rapidly broke below the ascending trendline that had been maintained since April on October 11. After a brief rebound, it fell again, signaling that the six-month-long daily bullish trend had officially ended. The market was expected to enter a wide-ranging consolidation phase. Based on this analysis, a short position was set up around $4,000, with a stop loss placed at the rebound high on the 14th, and a target near the price spike low from October 11, maintaining a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.
Afterward, the market entered a consolidation and recovery phase. Although Bitcoin briefly broke above the $116,000 structural high, most major coins (including Ethereum) failed to follow, indicating weak overall buying momentum. About half a month later, prices fell again, with Bitcoin finding support around $99,000, creating short-term rebound potential. Ethereum’s movement was largely in line with expectations, so the short position was closed within that range. The trading background is shown below:
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
Cycle: The Rhythmic Force Behind Trends
In financial markets, price fluctuations are not random. Every trend’s rise and fall follows a unique rhythm in time — this is what we call a “cycle.”
A cycle is not a tool for prediction but a structured way of thinking. Understanding cycles means grasping the market’s breathing rhythm, allowing traders to find their position between uptrends and downtrends.
I. The Essence of Cycles: The Flow and Rebirth of Energy
Each market movement reflects the ebb and flow between capital sentiment and fundamental strength.
The essence of a cycle lies in the accumulation, release, and reaccumulation of capital energy.
During an uptrend, the market goes through a phase from energy buildup to emotional expansion;
during a downtrend, it experiences a phase of confidence collapse followed by recovery and rebuilding.
Typical patterns include:
- Rising cycle: low volatility, breakout with increased volume, trend acceleration
- Topping cycle: high trading volume, price divergence, overheated sentiment
- Falling cycle: panic selling, shrinking volume, structural breakdown
- Bottoming cycle: sideways consolidation, chip concentration, confidence recovery
The existence of cycles reminds us — trends move not in straight lines, but in waves.
II. Identifying Cycles: From Price, Time, and Rhythm
To read a cycle, one must look beyond price — it’s equally important to observe time structure and rhythmic shifts. Together, these three dimensions form the core framework of cycle analysis.
- Price Dimension: Defining Trend Waves
• Each trend consists of several phases: initiation — expansion — peak — retracement
• Trendlines and moving averages help identify which phase the market is in
• If the slope of an uptrend flattens and pullbacks deepen, it signals a weakening cycle
2. Time Dimension: The Periodic Nature of Volatility
• Bull cycles usually last longer than bear cycles, but move at a slower rhythm
• Observing the “average duration” of cycles (e.g., 20-day, 60-day, 120-day) helps assess trend maturity
• When the current cycle exceeds its historical average and momentum fails to make new highs, short-term risk often increases
3. Rhythm Dimension: Resonance Between Momentum and Sentiment
• Indicators such as MACD, RSI, and OBV reflect the rhythm of capital momentum
• When price makes new highs but momentum fails to expand, it’s a typical signal of “rhythmic imbalance”
• When price action and market sentiment diverge, it often signals that a cycle reversal is approaching
III. Logic of Cycle Trading: Identify, Wait, and Follow the Trend
The core of cycle trading is not about predicting time but about recognizing the phase and matching it with the right strategy.
Each stage corresponds to a different trading logic and risk management approach.
The key to cycle trading is not about “catching the bottom or picking the top,”
but about identifying the dominant phase and staying in sync with the trend.
IV. Cycle Measurement: The Ratio Between Time and Magnitude
Just like price waves, cycles also follow certain time ratio patterns.
Common tools include Fibonacci time ratios and equidistant cycle lines.
For example:
If the previous upward cycle lasted 60 days, the retracement cycle often appears at:
• 0.382 cycle (around 23 days): strong correction
• 0.5 cycle (around 30 days): neutral correction
• 0.618 cycle (around 37 days): weak rebound or signal of phase reversal
These time ratios are not absolute, but they help traders gauge rhythm.
When time reaches a key proportional range and momentum shows reversal signals, it often marks a crucial turning point for observing directional changes.
V. Common Misconceptions: Misreading Rhythm and Strategy Mismatch
- Viewing cycles with linear thinking Cycles are not mechanical repetitions but probabilistic rhythmic fluctuations. Each market phase has its own unique drivers and rhythm shifts.
- Focusing only on price and ignoring time Price tells you the direction of the trend, while time tells you the lifespan of the trend. Ignoring the time dimension often leads to chasing highs or panicking at lows.
- Lack of awareness of rhythm transitions In the same market, different cycles often overlap and resonate. When short-term reversals diverge from long-term cycles, traders can easily be misled by false signals.
VI. The Value of Cycle Thinking: Finding Certainty Within Rhythm
Mastering cycles is not about predicting turning points, but about understanding the rhythm of trends.
When you learn to move in sync with the market’s rhythm, trading becomes less about emotional battles and more about rhythm management.
Cycle thinking allows us to remain calm amid market noise —
to follow the trend during expansion, observe cautiously during contraction,
to exit when the market is euphoric, and to position courageously when it’s depressed.
The art of trading lies not in speed, but in rhythm.
When you can hear the “breathing” of the market,
you will find your own rhythm and opportunities within the endless cycles.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
Learn more about Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 117