How Many People Voted to Lose Their Healthcare?

It has long been taboo for a politician to propose cutting benefit programs, such as Medicaid. Tens of millions of people rely on Medicaid for healthcare coverage they wouldn’t otherwise be able to afford. Factor in that people with health insurance have significantly higher life expectancy rates, and it’s no wonder that politicians are afraid of taking it away from their constituents.

This is why many prominent Republicans have repeatedly promised not to touch Medicaid benefits. Here are just a few:

• “We are going to preserve the programs. We’re not gutting Medicaid.” — House Speaker Mike Johnson
• “President Trump has said he does not want to cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid, and I stand with him on that commitment.” — Rep. Lauren Boebert
• “We’re not going to gut Medicaid or Social Security under any circumstances.” — Rep. Rob Bresnahan
• “Will not touch Social Security and Medicare benefits. We are not interested in cutting the social and health care safety net for children, disabled, and low-income Americans.” — Rep. Kevin Calvert

That went out the window when both the House and Senate (including those quoted above) voted to pass a bill that would cut over $700 billion from Medicaid and take away coverage from millions of people.

The Medicaid cuts are just one part of why this legislation is unpopular. However, while most of the country views the bill unfavorably, it has broad support among Republicans. Which begs the question — how many people support a bill that’s going to take away their healthcare coverage?

How many Republican voters will lose their healthcare coverage?

If the Republican Medicaid cuts pass, how many people voted in 2024 to lose their healthcare? We can make a rough estimate.

To begin, we can examine the turnout numbers for the 2024 election across each state and how they compare to the national average. We can also look at exit polls to determine the turnout rate for voters who earn less than $30,000, which was around 46 to 48 percent nationally. Using these numbers, we can estimate the turnout rate, by state, of low-income voters.

Next, let’s look at the number of Medicaid enrollees. According to recent estimates, approximately 71 million people are enrolled in Medicaid across the United States. Of these, about 52 percent, or 40.1 million, are adults. Below are the estimated number of Medicaid enrollees by state, the estimated number of adults on Medicaid in those states, and the estimated number of voters on Medicaid based on that state’s turnout rate.

With the estimated number of voters on Medicaid in each state, we can then estimate the number of them that voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election. According to exit polls, Trump had 50 percent support from voters who earn under $30,000. That gives him about half of all Medicaid voters in a given state.

Of course, Medicaid isn’t disappearing entirely. Some estimates suggest that around 11.8 million fewer people will have healthcare coverage as a result of the Republican Medicaid cuts (some estimates are even higher). If we take 52 percent (the number of adults covered by Medicaid) and multiply it by 11.8 million, around 6,136,000 adults could become uninsured, or around 16.5 percent of all adults on Medicaid.

Finally, we multiply 16.5 percent by Trump’s estimated share of Medicaid voters in each state. When we do that, and add up all the results, we see that around 1,525,000 people voted for Donald Trump and will likely lose their Medicaid coverage as a result.

This is a rough estimate that incorporates some simplifications and assumptions. For example, while Medicaid covers about 52 percent of adults nationwide, the coverage varies from state to state. And Medicaid isn’t only for low-income households, but also groups like the elderly or people with disabilities, who may have voted at different rates compared to low-income households.

Despite these assumptions, though, I think it’s safe to say that hundreds of thousands, and possibly more than a million, people likely voted to take away their own healthcare.

Voting against self-interests

None of this is to say that we should care more about Republicans losing their Medicaid coverage than Democrats. Someone struggling to get by and losing their healthcare coverage is tragic, regardless of their political affiliation.

Rather, it highlights the level of misinformation surrounding the impacts of these policies and the strong desire among elected Republicans to ensure that the wealthiest pay less in taxes, even if it means making life more difficult for those already struggling.

Many Republican-leaning voters believe that these Medicaid cuts are simply from removing non-citizens from the program, despite practically no money from Medicaid being spent on non-citizens. Or that the changes are simply adding a work requirement, so that Medicaid only goes to the most needy, which ignores that similar work requirement programs have resulted in mostly people with jobs losing their coverage.

But this simply isn’t the case. According to Leonardo Cuello, a research professor at the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy’s Center for Children and Families, “Basically every type of Medicaid enrollee could be at risk of coverage loss,” and that “It is patently false that the impact is only going to be on able-bodied individuals.”

Elected Republicans are using these false claims to justify their cuts and provide continued tax relief for the wealthiest Americans. So, if you or someone you know relies on Medicaid and voted for a Republican in the last election, now is a good time to explore other options.