Tech Giants’ Bond Issuing Frenzy Fuels Market Fears, Oracle “First in Line”

Amid the ongoing AI investment boom, market concerns had previously surfaced that Oracle (ORCL.US) might issue up to $100 billion in debt to fund its AI ambitions. Worries over Oracle's debt situation drove its five year credit default swap (CDS) to surge to a three year high. However, BNP Paribas believes Oracle's actual debt issuance will be significantly less than $100 billion.

Therefore, Oracle may only need to issue $25 billion to $35 billion in debt to fund its AI infrastructure development. While this additional debt issuance would come on top of the company's recent $18 billion bond offering, it remains far below the $100 billion level that had investors concerned.

It's worth noting that given Oracle's high profit margins in its cloud infrastructure business, we also have reason to believe the company can withstand a higher debt burden. Management could also explore alternative financing solutions (such as vendor financing) to alleviate upfront cash outlay pressures. Many institutions have already assigned Oracle an “Overweight” rating, but due to increased capital expenditures and currency fluctuations, some have lowered their target price from $430 to $390.

Furthermore, the market currently prices Oracle's collaboration with OpenAI at only a “minimal upside.” This can be calculated: approximately 84% of Oracle's current market capitalization is supported by its non AI businesses. Estimates suggest Oracle's cloud infrastructure business could contribute approximately $13 per share to earnings by fiscal year 2027. This implies significant upside potential should the cloud infrastructure business approach its targets.

Leave a Reply