By skyforbes 
I’ve seen some DDs so I’ll try not to repeat too much, and I’ll make this more about inevitable reality than hype fluff.
A Chemistry lesson : NdPr vs. Dy/Tb
Everyone knows “rare earth magnets” mean NdPr (neodymium/praseodymium) magnets. They are found in smartphones, headphones, disk drives, and small motors. These magnets are strong and cheap, but their weakness is thermal: they start to lose strength at elevated temperatures.
Enter dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb). These heavy rare earth elements dramatically increase coercivity (resistance to demagnetization) when you dope NdPr magnets with them. They extend operating temperatures well beyond 150–200°C. Without Dy and Tb, the magnets in EV motors, wind turbines, and defense applications fail. These two elements are the bottleneck. they are the real risk for modern national-security grade magnets. I would bet that the govt in their infinite wisdom knows this.
The MP deal splashed across headlines over the summer did nothing to address this bottleneck. It was designed to keep near-term U.S. magnet production alive and avoid a politically embarrassing and economically shocking supply chain shutdown. But it does not solve the heavy rare earth problem and the national security vulnerabilities that result.
You can source NdPr but you cannot sidestep Dy and Tb. And today, as has been mentioned many times, China controls 99.8% of Dy/Tb refining capacity. That is why Washington’s “deal” with Beijing is a band-aid. The underlying wound is still bleeding: without Dy/Tb refining capacity inside U.S. borders, there is no secure supply chain for the only magnets that matter. Do we think Xi and Don will kiss and make up and be friends forever now?
Where the Money Is Moving
Now, let’s assume that the government knows it has no choice but to secure domestic Dy/Tb refining. They have recently teamed up with Orion Resource Partners and Abu Dhabi to set up the fund that will secure a non-Chinese supply chain for heavies. If you search for their press releases and info about this 1.8B fund: they have made their investment criteria explicit: they will only back shovel-ready or producing companies. This filters out the noise and removes most juniors.
There is exactly one company in the United States that can refine Dy and Tb today: Energy Fuels (UUUU).
While all of you regards were freaking out about the China deal today, JP Morgan announced its first $75M tranche today as part of a $1.5T capital allocation into critical materials. Smart money is entering the chat. And when it comes to Dy/Tb, there is no option: the board has exactly one square.
The Geopolitical Angle
EVs, defense systems, wind turbines and clean energy tech: all of these require Dy/Tb-doped magnets. The U.S. cannot outsource that supply to China without strategic vulnerability. A stopgap deal might buy a few quarters. But the Pentagon and DOE are under no illusion: they need a domestic Dy/Tb supply chain, and they need it yesterday.
That means capital, both public and private, is being funneled toward the one company capable of executing.
Valuation: The Elephant in the room
Now, there is one legitimate concern that bears addressing: valuation. Yes, UUUU has already run and yes, the stock is expensive.
How much is geopolitical leverage worth? How much is national security worth? How much does the US spend per year on the military? 1T? You think there is some accountant who is considering the DCF who is going to talk the DOW and Don out of investing in our countries geopolitical, economic, and military safety?
Conclusion
Ignore the noise and doom right now around rare earths. I won’t even go into why I think a major part of the correction in rare earth stocks is linked to a momentum factor trade that buckets them in with a bunch of other assets that have appreciated over the last year. The actual choke point vulnerability that the US has right now is refining Dy and Tb. Without them, there is no EV motor, no wind turbine generator, and no mission critical defense tech.
UUUU is the only U.S. player with the refining capability right now. The government knows this. Orion and ADQ know this. JP Morgan knows this. Industry knows this.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
Positions: 40 Jan 20 Calls.
I’m poor but I’m not wrong. No dates, no hype, I just know there is no other option.