The Week in Review: Markets Steady After Policy Whiplash

Markets ended the week on edge after a wave of tariff threats and quick reversals between the United States and China. The drop on Friday started when new U.S. tariffs were announced, followed by China’s response on rare earth exports. Over the weekend, both sides stepped back. President Trump said a meeting with President Xi could still happen, and China confirmed that its export policies had not changed. The shift showed how closely markets and policy now move together. A single-day drop of about 2% to 3% was enough to push both countries to calm things down.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 2.71% on Friday. What happens next depends on whether that move confirms a breakdown. A breakdown would only be confirmed if the next daily close falls below Friday’s low. If the index instead moves higher, the key level to watch is around 6,700. A close above that area before confirmation would point to recovery. Staying below it would keep volatility high and risk elevated.

Looking at the larger structure, the S&P has been testing major resistance. A key trendline runs from the October 2023 low through the August and January 2025 lows. That line, once support, has now turned into resistance. A second parallel line, drawn from the March 2020 low through the 2022 bear market low, matches almost perfectly with the same resistance zone. Together, these form a strong ceiling that has repeatedly blocked upward moves. It means the market will need real strength to break through. Technical analysis deals with probabilities, not guarantees, and this alignment suggests rejection is more likely unless strong buying returns.

Nvidia (NVDA) remains the centerpiece of the technology sector, valued at around $4.5 trillion. Its recent high touched a key trendline connecting the 2021 bull market peak with its most recent top. That resistance point triggered a sharp selloff on Friday, bringing the stock back to that same line.

Nvidia’s chart still sits inside a wedge pattern, which signals indecision. Until a breakout or breakdown occurs, the setup is neutral. On the weekly chart, Nvidia formed a long upper wick, a bearish sign that often points to short-term weakness. That signal would only fail if Nvidia closes the week above its previous high near $195.60. It’s important to remember that weekly patterns can only be reversed on weekly closes, not daily ones. Until that happens, the chart leans slightly bearish, but still neutral overall.

Each time Nvidia approaches its resistance line, the stock reacts strongly. The fact that its value slipped from about $4.6 trillion to $4.5 trillion in a single session shows how sensitive leading stocks are to these technical levels.

Movements in stocks and currencies can ripple into gold, silver, and energy. When markets are uncertain, gold and silver often act as safe havens, while oil (WTI) and natural gas (NG) reflect changes in growth expectations. Traders will be watching these areas for confirmation of trend direction.

Outlook

The next few sessions will come down to confirmation. If the S&P 500 (SPX) closes below Friday’s low, that confirms a breakdown and suggests more downside ahead. A close above 6,700 would signal recovery and strength. Nvidia (NVDA) remains a key guide for the technology sector, and its reaction around resistance could shape the broader market tone.

The lesson this week is that charts often tell the story before headlines do. The quick shift in global policy after a brief market drop shows how much influence price action holds. For now, traders and investors will keep their focus on what the charts confirm, not what the headlines promise.