Who’s Your Favorite to Take Over WBD?

Hey guys. I have been deep in the merger documents, analyst notes, and WBD filings for weeks. Here is my pick about who should win: Netflix is not just a bidder. They are the only company whose biggest weakness becomes the solution to the industry’s biggest problem. No fluff. Only data and logic.

1. Netflix needs studios more than anyone else, which is exactly why they are perfect for WBD

Netflix’s catalog is 55% “Netflix Originals” in the United States according to What’s on Netflix for Q4 2024. It sounds dominant, but only between 20% and 30% of those originals are produced internally by Netflix Studios such as Albuquerque or Shepperton. The rest is created by external studios like Sony Pictures Television, Shondaland, MRC, Skydance, or comes through licensing deals with NBCU, Warner, Paramount, BBC, and co-productions where Netflix funds the title but does not control the production pipeline.

This means that around 45% of their entire catalog, and up to 75% of their most watched titles, comes from third parties they do not own according to Parrot Analytics for 2024. In other words, Netflix is a distribution giant that suffers from a production dependency problem.

Now consider what happens if you add Warner Bros. Studios to the equation. You get a full film studio with the Burbank lot, VFX and post-production divisions, a complete television pipeline including HBO, Warner Bros. Television, and Cartoon Network, a theatrical release operation representing around 14% of the North American box office when combined with Universal, and an IP library that includes DC, Harry Potter, Looney Tunes, The Matrix, and Middle-earth.

No other bidder has this gap to fill. Comcast already owns Universal, which means that merging two studios would create redundancy, layoffs, and slate cuts. Paramount already owns Paramount Pictures, which creates the same problem but at a smaller scale. Netflix owns no legacy studios at all, which means no overlap and complete upside. This is not a “nice to have.” It is existential. Netflix spent 18 billion dollars on content in 2025, and between 9 and 10 billion went to third parties through licensing and external production. Acquiring Warner Bros. Studios would reduce that external spending by between 30% and 40% while giving Netflix full control of the pipeline. The goal is not to get “more content.” The goal is to finally own the means of production in a market where every other major company already does.

1. They are already committing to a 45 day theatrical window

Public filings reported by Variety on 2 December 2025 confirm that Netflix will honor all existing theatrical agreements and apply a standard 45 day window. They can sell HBO Max or create a joint venture with Peacock to avoid antitrust complications while keeping the parts of WBD that matter most. Comcast would be merging two theatrical pipelines of roughly 30% each, which guarantees cuts. Netflix would be adding a new pipeline instead of collapsing two.

1. The hybrid exit is already part of their strategy

Netflix would obtain DC, Looney Tunes, and the HBO library for new streaming originals. Comcast or Paramount would obtain HBO Max plus Peacock scale, reaching around 170 million subscribers, without affecting theatrical operations. Netflix could even maintain or enlarge IP licenses for Universal theme parks, that would gain the right to add new rides. This creates a scenario where all parties benefit and no other bidder can replicate it.

1. Antitrust math actually favors Netflix once spin offs are applied

The Department of Justice dislikes any streaming provider approaching a 40% market share. However, they strongly support separating cable assets from studios. Spinning off HBO Max would drop Netflix’s share from around 40% to between 28% and 30%. Cable networks such as CNN and TBS could then be sold to any buyer, including Paramount. The regulatory barrier is much lower than the one Comcast faces, since Comcast would control around 32% of theatrical releases and would also own broadband infrastructure.

1. History shows that Disney and Fox worked because they complemented each other

Disney lacked an R rated division, it lacked the X Men, and it lacked the scale Hulu provided. Fox filled those gaps. The same logic applies here. Disney did not own a competing studio, which is why integration was smooth. Netflix also does not own a competing studio, so the same outcome is expected, only adapted for the streaming era.

Bottom line

Netflix combined with WBD studios and an HBO Max spin off becomes the Disney and Fox style merger the industry actually needs. It solves Netflix’s reliance on licensed content, it protects theatrical releases with a consistent 45 day window, it minimizes layoffs because there is no studio overlap, and it creates two healthier streaming ecosystems: Netflix and a new independent Max style service. Comcast would consolidate power and reduce competition. Paramount would only expand another legacy major without addressing structural weaknesses. Netflix is the only bidder whose current weakness becomes the solution the industry is looking for.

Who do you think will win the deal?