By skyforbes Q1 FY26 Results & Updated Q2 Guidance: Q1 revenue came in at $5.02B (miss vs. $6.09B est., -18% QoQ), with EPS at $0.35 (vs. $0.41 est.), pressured by ~$1.8B in deferred rack shipments tied to customer validations and supply chain timing. Margins held steady at ~14.5%, reflecting cost controls amid volume ramps. However, the real story is the new Q2 guidance, upgraded in the earnings call to reflect full deferred recognition: official range of $5.9B–$6.2B, but management explicitly signaled “double-digit potential” (10B+), driven by Q1 deferrals + accelerated Blackwell system deployments. Analysts (e.g., Rosenblatt, Barclays) model $9–11B for Q2—a ~100% QoQ surge—aligning with FY26 full-year outlook now raised to ≥$36B. This isn’t organic weakness; it’s a classic timing shift, with no lost orders.
Current Valuation: At $42, SMCI trades at a rock-bottom ~0.7x FY26 P/S (on $36B rev guidance), vs. peers like Dell (1.2x) and HPE (1.0x)—and that’s before baking in the Q2 upside to 40–44B annualized run-rate. Forward P/E ~15x on expected $2.80+ EPS, with ROIC accelerating on AI margins. The dip embeds bearish fears of volatility, but ignores the backlog’s strength and capex tailwinds (Malaysia/USA factories at full tilt).
Historical Pattern & Catalysts: SMCI’s playbook is consistent: Q1/Q2 “misses” on deferrals (3/3 since 2024), followed by Q3/Q4 beats (avg. +10% vs. est., +50–180% stock gains over 3–12 months). Q2 here mirrors Q1’24’s setup but with 2x the backlog and Nvidia’s GPU guarantees. Key catalysts: Blackwell validation completions (Dec), hyperscaler wins (5+ in queue), and no major bottlenecks.
Thoughts?
I own shares, not financial advice, do your own dd.